Aug 31, 2025
On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.
Aug 22, 2025
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.
Aug 3, 2025
This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday’s shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We...